b'Idaho Economic OutlookTHE EVOLVING GLOBALtoday. However, given fossil fuels limited supply and ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT shrinking accessibility, the risk-benet ratio for oil may force a rapid shift toward a new, and likely reduced, According to a report titled, Growing the Idahoenergy future.1 According to a DOE-sponsored Economy: Moving into the Future, Idaho must maintainreport titled, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, and develop world-class assets to compete in anMitigation, & Risk Management,increasingly evolving global economy. There are six dynamic forces that are relevant to Idahos future inThe peaking of world oil production presents the the global economy. First is population growth andU.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk a changing demographic. The state population ismanagement problem. As peaking is approached, expected to grow from 1.55 million people in 2010 toliquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase 1.97 million in 2030, an increase of 27 percent. Thus,dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, assuming the performance of the economy over thethe economic, social, and political costs will be next two decades will be maintained and no majorunprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on limits on legal immigration will be instated, Idaho willboth the supply and demand sides, but to have need to provide housing, transportation, jobs, andsubstantial impact, they must be initiated more public services for about 400,000 more people in 2030than a decade in advance of peaking. 4than in 2010.1 In 2019, Idaho ranked number one in rate of growth at 2.1 percent as the population rose toThe fourth force of change is technology, and within a record 1,787,065.2 An aging baby boomer populationthis category are ve subcategories:is also a factor of concern; by 2030 the Census Bureau1. Nanotechnology, which may lead to lighter and predicts that at least 18 percent of the Idaho populationstronger vehicles, better batteries, and cheaper will be over 65, which will result in many people leavingsensors and communication, all of which will aid the work force and requiring increasing aid.1 mobility and improve transportation safety;2. Biotechnology, which may lead to new The second dynamic force relevant to Idahos economicapplications, products, and enterprises in future is the states knowledge-based economy. Themedicine, drug, and vaccine development, global economy is becoming increasingly knowledge- environmental protection and clean-up, based, meaning information has become the primaryadvanced biofuels, clean water technology, commodity over land, raw materials, and manufacturedand agriculture;products and services. The pace of technological3. Information technology, which includes change continues to increase, and the shelf life ofincreasing telecommunication and broadband knowledge value continues to shrink; thus, the abilitycapabilities, building protable server farms, to acquire new knowledge and apply it quickly isand expanded use of sensors to monitor critical critical to economic survival.1 Yet, Idaho has shown it isinfrastructure functions;competent in this area. The state had the 12th highest4. Robotics, which includes automating systems number of patents awarded per capita in 2017 and theand tasks, performing dangerous activities, and number of high-tech jobs has risen 20 percent fromperforming adaptive functions; and38,945 to 46,747 jobs between 2010 and 2018.3 5. Health care technology, which relates to the devices, medicines, procedures, and systems The third dynamic force is the cost of traditional fossildeveloped to solve health problems and improve fuels and the development of 21st-century energy.the quality of lives.1More than anything else, fossil fuels have enabled the mechanization of agriculture, the growth ofFifth is the real and regulatory impacts of climate manufacturing, the creation of suburbs, multiplechange. Many U.S. businesses have begun focusing vehicles per household, and the explosion of humanon what they need to do to be more sustainable to population from 1.6 billion people in 1900 to 7.8 billionimprove prots and please customers. Businesses Economic Outlook 33'